Bitcoin eyes $28K push as traders demand CPI day BTC price volatility
Bitcoin (BTC) tracked $27,500 on May 10 as markets geared up for what should be a positive United States inflation print.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it lingered in a narrow trading range ahead of the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.
A classic volatility catalyst for risk assets, CPI forms one of the key metrics which the Federal Reserve considers when changing interest rates.
The next change is a full month away, but both government and private-sector metrics predict declining inflation to persist, and even accelerate, in the coming months.
“A little bit of stagnation now, but into the coming two to three months, we’re likely to see a gradual decline, and actually a pretty steep decline, in inflation,” financial commentator Tedtalksmacro said in part of YouTube analysis on May 9.
Tedtalksmacro referenced both the Cleveland Fed inflation forecast and, separately, “Trueflation,” an unofficial leading indicator for inflation trends which likewise showed further substantial declines to come.
In a subsequent tweet on the day, Tedtalksmacro separately showed potential BTC price changes relative to various possible CPI numbers, along with the probabilities as per JPMorgan Chase.
CPI gameplan for #BitcoinAbove 5.5% --> $25,000 (4% probability)5.3% to 5.5%--> $26,500 (25% probability)5.0% to 5.2% --> $28,500 (50% probability)4.7% to 4.9% --> $29,000 (20% probability)4.5% or lower --> $30,000+ (1% probability)*Probabilities according to JPMorgan
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, meanwhile, market expectations for the Fed to pause its interest rate hikes to tame inflation in June stood at 80% at the time of writing.
Turning to short-term BTC price action, the lasting impact of the
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