Bitcoin Will Probably Retest $25K But Bears Beware, On-chain Indicators Suggest BTC Price in Early-Stage Bull Market
Bitcoin (BTC)’s short-term technical outlook is not looking good.
The world’s first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has now pulled more than 13% lower versus the yearly highs it printed back in April to the north of the $31,000 level.
In doing so, it has fallen convincingly to the south of its 21 and 50-Day Moving Averages (both in the mid-$28,000s) and was last changing hands just under the $27,000.
Data this week showed that US inflation, while still hot, is easing, lessening pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer.
But Bitcoin is threatening nonetheless threatening a break below the lower bounds of its mid-$26,000s to $31,000ish range that has been in plan since mid-March.
Perhaps more presciently, BTC is also threatening a breakout below a pennant structure that had formed in the past few weeks.
Once these key support levels finally give in, technicians are predicting that a test of support in the $25,200-400 area is on the cards.
But Bitcoin bears beware.
A further 6% drop from current levels won’t validate any long-term bearish Bitcoin thesis just yet.
A drop back towards late-2022 lows under $20,000 still seems exceedingly unlikely against the backdrop of macro conditions that, from Bitcoin’s perspective, are improving (Bitcoin likes a less hawkish Fed and US bank turmoil).
Longer-term technical analysis also shows the bear market is still intact, with Bitcoin still well above its 200-Day Moving Average, above its 2023 uptrend and having experienced a bullish golden cross three months ago.
Another reason to be bullish is that a laundry list of widely followed on-chain indicators are signaling Bitcoin is in the early stages of a new bull market.
Glassnode’s “Recovering from a Bitcoin
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