This Bitcoin Price Top Indicator Could Actually Be a Good Bottom Indicator Too

cryptonews.com:

Since reaching its all-time high of almost $69,000 in November 2021, Bitcoin has been on the decline ever since.

As we recently touched on, the price of Bitcoin has been on the slide for the better part of a year, but the bottom appears to be in sight. Though most indicators suggest that Bitcoin is now nearing the bottom of its recent bear market, it remains unclear just how low it can go or when it will occur.

But by repurposing the popular Pi Cycle Top indicator, we may now be inching closer to an answer.

Created by Philip Swift, the founder of LookIntoBitcoin, the Pi Cycle Top indicator uses a combination of the 111-day simple moving average (111SMA) and 2x multiple of Bitcoin's 350-day simple moving average (2x 350SMA) to forecast the top of Bitcoin’s market cycles.

Historically, the 2x 350SMA has proven to be an accurate predictor of Bitcoin’s top, having closely predicted the height and timing of the past 3 bull markets.

Though the Pi Cycle Top Indicator is primarily used for indicating Bitcoin’s top, it also demonstrates impressive predictive power for its bottom — with the 111SMA overlapping the bottom of the 2012, 2015, and 2019 bear markets.

Backtested on historical data, the 111SMA has been shown to predict the depth and timing of the Bitcoin bottom to within 5 months.

Bitcoin is widely known to have a roughly four-year cycle centered around the halving event — with Bitcoin tending to bottom around 380-550 days prior to its halving date, and topping out around 360 to 520 days post-halving. 

But these figures are far from precise enough to really take advantage of.

According to the 111SMA, the Bitcoin price now appears to be between 1-5 months away from its bottom, which means a further slide can be expected at some