Solana price just one breakdown away from a 40% slide in June — here's why

cointelegraph.com:

Solana (SOL) is nearing a decisive breakdown moment as it inches towards the apex of its prevailing "descending triangle" pattern.

Notably, SOL's price has been consolidating inside a range defined by a falling trendline resistance and horizontal trendline support, which appears like a descending triangle—a trend continuation pattern.

Therefore, since SOL has been trending lower, down about 85% from its November 2021 peak of $267, its likelihood of breaking below the triangle range is higher.

As a rule of technical analysis, a breakdown move followed by the formation of a descending triangle could last until the price has fallen by as much as the triangle's maximum height. This puts SOL's bearish price target at $22.50 in June, down about 40% from today's price.

But not all descending triangles lead to breakdowns, suggests a study conducted by Samurai Trading Academy. Notably, the likelihood of a descending triangle setup reaching its profit target is 7 out of 10, based on the pattern's history.

So that leaves SOL with a roughly 30% chance of avoiding a breakdown and rebounding.

Descending triangles that form during downtrends but still lead to price reversals typically mark the bottom of the asset's bearish cycle.

Suppose SOL holds strong above the triangle's horizontal trendline support. Then, the SOL/USD pair could break above the structure's falling trendline resistance, and rise by as much as its maximum height, which puts its upside target around $65, up about 72% from today's price.

The descending triangle's bullish profit target also coincides with SOL's 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) near $59.

Meanwhile, SOL's daily relative strength index (RSI), which has been reversing from its oversold