Prediction Markets and Community Notes are the “Flagship Social Technologies” of the 2020s, said Vitalik Buterin

cryptonews.com:

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin described prediction markets and Community Notes as the “flagship social epistemic technologies of the 2020s” on July 2. He highlighted their truth-seeking and democratic nature, built around open public participation rather than elite selection.

Buterin also recently suggested a new, clever approach to solving Ethereum’s infrastructural problem, which causes slow transactions and high gas fees.

Buterin said their foundation is open to public participation rather than elite selection.

Prediction markets operate on the principle that, when used effectively, collective intelligence can yield remarkably accurate forecasts about future events.

By allowing participants to bet on the outcomes of various scenarios, these markets reflect the aggregated probability of these outcomes through market prices. This method has proven to outperform traditional forecasting methods. For instance, a study by the University of Pennsylvania found that prediction markets provided more accurate election forecasts than polls between 1988 and 2012 in most cases.

Prediction markets and Community Notes are becoming the two flagship social epistemic technologies of the 2020s.

Both truth-seeking and democratic, built around open public participation rather than pre-selected elites.

I want to see many more things like this.

— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) July 2, 2024

The diversity of inputs from a wide range of participants reduces biases and incorporates broader perspectives, enhancing the overall accuracy and reliability of the predictions.

Additionally, prediction markets offer real-time updates as new information becomes available, allowing for dynamic adjustments that keep forecasts current and relevant.

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