Data shows Bitcoin traders’ neutral view ahead of Friday’s $750M BTC options expiry
Bitcoin (BTC) has bounced 11% from the $39,650 low made on Jan.10 and currently the price is battling with the $44,000 level. There are multiple explanations for the recent weakness, but none of them seem sufficient enough to justify the 42% correction that took place since the Nov. 10 all-time high at $69,000.
At the time (Nov. 12), negative remarks from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) were issued at the rejection of VanEck's physical Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). The regulator cited the inability to avoid market manipulation due to unregulated exchanges and heavy trading volume based on Tether's (USDT) stablecoin.
Then, on Dec. 17, the U.S. Financial Stability Oversight Council recommended that state and federal regulators review regulations and the tools that could be applied to digital assets. On Jan. 5, BTC price corrected again after the Federal Reserve's December FOMC session, which confirmed plans to ease debt buyback and likely increase interest rates.
Regarding derivatives markets, if Bitcoin price trades below $42,000 by the Jan. 14 expiry, bears will have a $75 million net profit on their BTC options.
At first sight, the $455 million call (buy) options are overshadowing the $295 million puts, but the 1.56 call-to-put ratio is deceptive because the 14% price drop over the last three weeks will likely wipe out most of the bullish bets.
If Bitcoin's price remains below $44,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Jan. 14, only $44 million worth of those call (buy) options will be available at the expiry. There is no value in the right to buy Bitcoin at $44,000 if BTC is trading below that price.
Here are the four most likely scenarios for the $750 million options expiry on Jan. 14. The imbalance favoring each
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