Bitcoin Volatility, Returns, and Drawdowns ‘Compress’ as the Asset Matures – Glassnode & CME Report
While following a similar post-halving trajectory, the 2024 BTC market saw smaller downturns compared to its predecessors, with analysts expecting drops in volatility and returns in the future as well, according to the ‘Digital Assets: Insights and Market Trends’ report, a joint publication of major derivatives marketplace CME Group and market intelligence provider Glassnode.
The report noted that Bitcoin halvings represent major events, which are closely and widely observed from the standpoint of market performance.
The space recently saw its fourth halving event, and all eyes are on the price performance following it.
Glassnode looked at the performance over the 365 days following the last four halvings.
It argues that the 2016 (blue) and 2020 (green) cycles are “likely more relevant points of comparison.” These occurred in the context of “a more mature and developed digital asset landscape.”
Both prior cycles, the report said, saw a period of several months of “relatively quiet performance” after the halvings and before “remarkable peak returns” of 350% and 650%, respectively.
In the weeks following this April’s halving, the 2024 BTC market has been following a similar trajectory. The coin’s price has traded within a range of a few percentage points.
Notably, compared to the previous bull markets, the 2024 uptrend saw “relatively shallow drawdowns.”
Since November 2022, the deepest correction saw the price fall 20.3% from the local high.
On the other hand, previous cycles experienced significantly deeper corrections. These ranged from 25% to 35% drops during the 2016-17 cycle, as well as 50% to 63% in 2020-21.
Per the report,
“As the Bitcoin market grows in size and sees wider institutional adoption, many analysts expect the
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