Bitcoin rose on rumors in 2023. How to predict what comes next.

livemint.com:

Bitcoin may be a relatively new technology. It can still follow some pretty old market maxims.

Back in October postings on X, formerly known as Twitter, suggested that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission had finally approved the listing of a BlackRock exchange-traded fund that would directly track the price of bitcoin. It was quickly clear that this wasn’t correct. The SEC has delayed decisions on so-called spot ETFs, with some key deadlines now in 2024.

But in a year of many challenges for crypto—from the trial of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried, to government actions against several big players—the momentum that has been building toward the regulatory approval of spot bitcoin ETFs has the market primed for this to eventually be true. By mid-October, the price of bitcoin had already jumped from over $16,000 at the start of 2023 to around $28,000—and is now over $43,000.

“We’ve seen the market price in ETF approval in advance," says Clara Medalie, director of research at crypto market data provider Kaiko.

Now the question is whether bitcoin might follow an old Wall Street adage in 2024: If the market bought on the rumor this year, could it sell on the news next year?

There is the usual caution for any bet on Washington to do what is expected in a straightforward manner. Though firms seeking to list spot bitcoin ETFs have recently been meeting with regulators, according to SEC memorandums posted on its website, there are indications that there could be some technical complexity introduced into approvals, having to do with whether shares are created or redeemed for actual bitcoins or for cash.

But even beyond that, ETF launches wouldn’t necessarily guarantee bitcoin price increases. It has happened before: Past