Models and fundamentals: Where will Bitcoin price go in 2023?

cointelegraph.com:

Bitcoin (BTC) had a bumpy ride throughout 2022, along with the rest of the digital asset market. The cryptocurrency began the year exchanging hands around $46,700 and is currently trading over 64% down at $16,560 at the time of writing. Consequently, the coin’s market capitalization took a tumble from around $900 billion on Jan. 1, 2022 to end the year at around $320 billion.

While Bitcoin’s drop in price could be attributed to the extraordinary circumstances that the entire cryptocurrency market has been through this year, it is important to reevaluate the 2022 price predictions made by various market entities. One of the most popular predictions was that of analyst PlanB’s Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. 

The S2F model predicted BTC to be at nearly $110,000 as of December 2022. The cryptocurrency finished the year trading at almost 85% off target, which raises questions about the validity of the price model. Stock-to-flow models are generally used to price commodities in the traditional markets, as they account for two variables related to an asset: stock and flow. “Stock” refers to the total existing supply of the asset, and “flow” refers to the new supply of the asset created each year.

Antoni Trenchev, co-founder and managing partner of Nexo — a digital asset management platform — shared with Cointelegraph his thoughts on the validity of the S2F prediction model:

Besides S2F, other models have been used to attempt to predict the price of Bitcoin in the near and distant future. Two popular ones are Elliott Wave Theory and Hyperwave Theory. While both also find their roots in traditional financial markets, their success in predicting the price of BTC has been relatively limited as well.

Considering that Bitcoin only