After Monday’s more than 3.0% dip, the second largest so far this month, Binance Coin (BNB) is back on the front foot. BNB/USD was last changing hands about 1.5% higher on the day on Tuesday, having recovered back to the north of the $310 level after finding support at its 21-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) just above the $300 level.
BNB continues to trade just over 3.0% below earlier weekly monthly in the $320s, with traders reluctant to continue bidding the price higher ahead of a barrage of key upcoming macro risk events. These include Wednesday’s Fed policy announcement, Thursday’s ECB and BoE policy meetings and Friday’s US jobs report, as well as a smattering of other tier-one US data releases like the ISM PMI surveys and JOLTs job openings.
The Fed is expected to hike rate by another 25 bps to 4.50-4.75%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s tone on the outlook for further rate hikes (markets are pricing just one more hike in March) will be the key thing for markets – some strategists expect Powell to come across as hawkish, despite a growing mountain of evidence that US inflation is falling back rapidly towards the Fed’s 2.0% target.
BNB/USD is at risk of dropping below its 21DMA and a short-term upwards trend line if the Fed does deliver a hawkish surprise. That would open the door to a drop back towards the next major support area in the $280 area, where the 18th January low, 100 and 200-Day SMAs reside.
Conversely, if macro events this week turn out as a positive for crypto (i.e. a dovish Fed and weak US data spur Fed easing bets), BNB could be looking at an upside break of the $320 resistance area. That would open the door to a rally back towards November 2022’s highs close to $400, a potential 27% rally from current
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