Bitcoin (BTC) is still in a bullish reversal when looking at this year’s price chart. The BTC price has gained 70% after bottoming out at around $16,800 in November 2022, defying rate hike fears while riding on growing exchange-traded fund approval optimism.
However, in recent months, Bitcoin bulls have failed to sustain the BTC price above $30,000. Therefore, with the “bullish” halving still over 200 days away, many traders wonder if the Bitcoin price will crash again in the coming months.
Cointelegraph looks at the possible scenarios as Q3 draws to a close.
From a technical standpoint, the Bitcoin price has stabilized around the 0.236 Fib line of its Fibonacci retracement graph drawn from the $69,000 swing high (the market top) to the $15,900 swing low (the local market bottom).
This flat BTC price action looks very similar to the one witnessed during the 2018 BTC price correction.
In 2018, the BTC/USD pair stabilized around its 0.236 Fib line at around $6,790 for months before dropping toward $3,000 in December. The $3,000 level coincided with what is now multiyear ascending trendline support (marked as bear market support in the chart above).
Bitcoin is now halfway repeating 2018 already with price flatlining at the 0.236 Fib line. A breakdown from this level means BTC price will see $21,500 as the next major support level, down 17.75% from current levels.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback’s strength against a pool of top foreign currencies, has reached its highest level since November 2022.
The index has been negatively correlated with Bitcoin throughout 2023, as shown below.
The dollar’s advance has accelerated after the United States Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Sept. 20, andRead more on cointelegraph.com