Ethereum traders show uncertainty ahead of today’s Shapella hardfork: Report

cointelegraph.com:

The Ethereum network’s Shapella upgrade, scheduled for around 6:30 pm EST on April 12, has induced significant uncertainty among traders, according to a report by Kaiko. 

The upgrade will enable staked-ETH withdrawals from the Beacon Chain for the first time since its launch in December 2020. According to previous estimates, the upgrade will add nearly 1.2 million to 3 million worth of ETH selling pressure in the first few weeks. This is one of the main reasons traders appear to be taking a cautious stance ahead of the upgrade.

Kaiko’s report shows that ETH is lagging behind BTC in spot and futures trading volumes, while options market data shows traders are actively adding short-term hedging positions.

Ethereum market share in USD trading volume compared to Bitcoin declined to March 2021 lows near 30%, per Kaiko data, showing that Ether has "struggled to maintain pace" with Bitcoin spot volumes. During Ethereum's last big upgrade, The Merge, its market share relative to Bitcoin reached a high of 53%.

Similarly, the relative increase in the open interest (OI) volumes for Bitcoin has surpassed Ethereum considerably with the April 10 price surge above $30,000.

The ratio between Ethereum’s spot and perpetual trading volumes also reflects the lack of trading interest. The ratio has dropped below the levels attained before the last big upgrade in September 2022, the Merge.

Lastly, the options market also reflected the uncertainty around the upgrade. The report found that the implied volatility for Ethereum options contracts expiring in April has trended higher than all timelines for Bitcoin. It suggests that an increasing number of traders are looking to hedge their positions.

When the demand for options increases, it implies that